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When appraising a new or growing business, valuators often turn to the discounted cash-flow (DCF) method. This technique, which derives value from a company’s ability to generate cash flow in the future, allows for significant flexibility in assumptions about growth. So, it also can be useful when valuing struggling companies that are in a state of flux. Here’s more on this method — and how growth factors into it.
The DCF method falls under the income approach, one of the three broad approaches to valuing a business. Under this method, a valuator generally projects a company’s cash flows over a discrete period of time, and then, at the end of that period, he or she assumes the company’s cash flows will stabilize and estimates a terminal (or residual) value. Next, the cash flows during the discrete period and the terminal value are discounted to their present values. Finally, the sum of those present values equals the company’s value.
Growth comes into play when a valuator (or management) projects future cash flows. It also factors into the determination of the proper discount rate. For example, growing businesses are generally more risky and would typically call for a higher discount rate.
Valuators consider several qualitative factors when assessing growth. Examples include the quality of management, capacity to form partnerships and marketing abilities.
A valuator also should assess the potential growth from the company’s existing assets. Relevant factors include overall industry growth, the company’s market share and the growth of assets in previous periods.
Of course, a company could also develop new assets. If the development of new assets is a significant part of a company’s business plan, a valuator must take into account both the potential growth from such assets and the costs and risks related to achieving that growth.
In addition, a valuator must assess the likelihood of acquisitions and the amount of growth that will result. A valuator will look at the company’s history of acquisitions and the level of acquisition activity in the industry, as well as the company’s projected financial ability to successfully carry out acquisitions.
Valuators consider quantitative growth factors, too. Historical data is particularly valuable if the company has been functioning under consistent business conditions — and expects to continue to do so in the future. In such a situation, any recent trends upward or downward in cash flow are insightful, unless they’re caused by a temporary change in operations, such as a short-term plant closure. Such trends require more in-depth analysis before a valuator can assume they’ll continue.
If management projections are available, they also will be considered. These projections can provide a valuator useful insight on the economic forces influencing the business’s growth. Management projections are especially important in two scenarios:
Examples of material changes include the introduction of a new product line or service offering and the closure of a facility. When such events occur, historical data usually becomes less relevant because it reflects substantially different circumstances.
Management projections can’t be accepted on their face, however. Valuators must question the assumptions and consider the purposes for which the projections were originally prepared. For example, projections may be more reliable if they’re prepared in the ordinary course of business than if they’re prepared for litigation.
Because growth influences both cash-flow projections and the determination of the appropriate discount rate, valuators (and attorneys) must stay vigilant to ensure the effects of growth aren’t exaggerated. If growth, including any of the qualitative and quantitative factors, is incorporated into cash flows and the discount rate without being appropriately tempered to account for such double consideration, a valuator risks significantly over- or undervaluing the business.
The Valuation & Litigation Support Group at Doeren Mayhew has a team of credentialed valuation experts who can assist in preparing a DCF analysis for your company. Depending on your specific needs, the team can review an internally prepared DCF analysis for accuracy, prepare a quick calculation of value or by provide a comprehensive valuation report. Contact them today.
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